Groundhog Day - Feb. 2 - Early Spring or 6 More Weeks of Winter????

[Crow Haven]

What's it gonna be? My state doesn't seem to have a local Marty-the-marmot weather predictor so I'll be watching for Punxsutawney Phil's say on the matter.


from Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day
"Groundhog Day (Pennsylvania German: Grundsaudaag, Murmeltiertag) is a day celebrated
on February 2. According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from
its burrow on this day, then spring will come early; if it is sunny, the groundhog
will supposedly see its shadow and retreat back into its burrow, and the winter
weather will continue for six more weeks.
Modern customs of the holiday involve celebrations where early morning festivals are
held to watch the groundhog emerging from its burrow.
In southeastern Pennsylvania, Groundhog Lodges (Grundsow Lodges) celebrate the holiday
with fersommlinge, social events in which food is served, speeches are made, and
one or more g'spiel (plays or skits) are performed for entertainment. The Pennsylvania
German dialect is the only language spoken at the event, and those who speak English
pay a penalty, usually in the form of a nickel, dime, or quarter per word spoken, with
the money put into a bowl in the center of the table.
The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog
Day, already a widely recognized and popular tradition, received widespread
attention as a result of the 1993 film Groundhog Day.

History: The celebration, which began as a Pennsylvania German custom in
southeastern and central Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries, has its origins
in ancient European weather lore, wherein a badger or sacred bear is the
prognosticator as opposed to a groundhog. It also bears similarities to the Pagan
festival of Imbolc, the seasonal turning point of the Celtic calendar, which is
celebrated on February 1 and also involves weather prognostication and to St.
Swithun's Day in July.
Historical origins:
The groundhog (Marmota monax) is a rodent of the family Sciuridae, belonging to the
group of large ground squirrels.
Banner of Grundsow Lodsh Nummer Sivva (Groundhog Lodge Number Seven), of Pennsburg,
Pennsylvania.The first documented American reference to Groundhog Day can be found in
a diary entry, dated February 4, 1841, of Morgantown, Pennsylvania, storekeeper
James Morris:

Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans,
[9] the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops
back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the
weather is to be moderate.
In Scotland, the poem:
If Candle-mas Day is bright and clear,
There'll be two winters in the year.
An English poem:
If Candle mas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.


Alternative origin theories: In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere, the
official first day of spring is almost seven weeks (46–48 days) after Groundhog Day,
on March 20 or March 21. The custom could have been a folk embodiment of the confusion
created by the collision of two calendrical systems. Some ancient traditions marked
the change of season at cross-quarter days such as Imbolc when daylight first makes
significant progress against the night. Other traditions held that spring did not
begin until the length of daylight overtook night at the Vernal Equinox. So an
arbiter, the groundhog/hedgehog, was incorporated as a yearly custom to settle the two
traditions. Sometimes spring begins at Imbolc, and sometimes winter lasts six more
weeks until the equinox."


Predictions of various groundhogs since 2013:

2014 ? ? ?
2013 Early spring[19] Jimmy the Groundhog Sun Prairie, Wisconsin
2013 6 more weeks of winter[20] Flatiron Freddy Boulder, Colorado
2013 6 more weeks of winter[21] Malverne Mel Malverne, New York
2013 6 more weeks of winter[20] Stormy Marmot Aurora, Colorado
2013 6 more weeks of winter[22] Shubenacadie Sam Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia
2013 6 more weeks of winter[22] Fred Val d'Espoir, Quebec
2013 Early spring[22] Wiarton Willie Wiarton, Ontario
2013 6 more weeks of winter[22] Manitoba Merv Winnipeg, Manitoba
2013 Early spring[22] Winnipeg Willow Winnipeg, Manitoba
2013 Early spring[23] Potomac Phil Washington, DC
2013 6 more weeks of winter[24] Western Maryland Murray Cumberland, Maryland
2013 6 more weeks of winter[25] Octorara Orphie Quarryville, Pennsylvania
2013 6 more weeks of winter[26] Poor Richard York, Pennsylvania
2013 6 more weeks of winter[26] Dover Doug Dover, Pennsylvania
2013 6 more weeks of winter[26] Susquehanna Sherman Mount Wolf, Pennsylvania
2013 6 more weeks of winter[27] Pine Grove Grover Pine Grove, Pennsylvania
2013 Early spring[28] Nibbles Asheville, North Carolina
2013 Early spring[29] Dunkirk Dave Dunkirk, New York
2013 Early spring[30] Woody Howell, Michigan
2013 Early spring[31] Punxsutawney Phil Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania

[gwpriester]

Hope we get 6 more weeks of winter seeing as we have not had any real winter this year. It has been the warmest winter since moving to New Mexico in 2000. Scary really.

[ber61]

My Tulips are not popping up yet so more snow for us. Gary have you considered a trip North for some COLD air? We have had our share of below 0 days.

[Crow Haven]

Looks like 6 more weeks of winter weather on the agena according to Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island (NY) Chuck. If we had a marmot of our own here, in coastal Oregon, he would have seen his shadow this morning also -- it's sunny and 55 degrees F.

Gary -- I hope you get more snow and rain, the southwest is dangerously dry, as is the west coast.
Richard -- Brrrr that's cold there, but the snow/water is a good thing. Water is more precious than gold!

[mwenz]

...If we had a marmot of our own here, in coastal Oregon, he would have seen his shadow this morning also -- it's sunny and 55 degrees F.

Up here in north Willamette valley, it is 38 F. But wonderfully sunny.

We do need both snow pack and rain, though. Unless like in years past, we just have a nominally rainy summer. I would rather have the snow pack and winter rain.

[Crow Haven]

Hello fellow Oregonian! Yes, people here are worried about wells drying up! Really record chilly temps a few months ago in Florence too, I think -12F wow and that's cold!